The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization
by Thomas Homer-Dixon
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Spectacular Synthesis, Signals Emergence of Collective Intelligence (2008-02-25)
I learned a great deal more about this author when two chapters in a book I just published, Collective Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace featured his thinking: an interview of him by Hassan Masum; and his interview of the Rt Hon Paul Martin on the important topic of the Internet and democracy.
Consequently, I may place more value on this book than some of the other reviewers, but I choose to give it a solid five stars. In combination with his earlier book The Ingenuity Gap: Facing the Economic, Environmental, and Other Challenges of an Increasingly Complex and Unpredictable Future, and the work of many, many people on emergent collective, peace, commercial, gift, cultural, and earth intelligence, all subsets of the emerging discipline of public intellligence (self-governance founded on full access to all information to produce reality-based balanced budgets), I regard the author as one of a handful of individuals exploring the possibilities of cognitive collective integral consciousness.
I have a note: superb single best overview. I cannot list all the books I would like, being limited to ten links, the ones I do are a token. See my 1100+ other reviews and my many lists for a more comprehensive stroll through the relevant literatures.
Highlights from my notes:
+ Five stresses (population, energy, environmental, climate, economic)
+ I have a note, what about mental, cultural, physical stress (e.g. dramatic increases in mental illness, blind fundamentalism, and obesity).
+ See the image on predicting revolution, the author observes that revolutions come from synchronous failures with negative synergy.
+ Connectivity and speed are multipliers, and I am reminded that virtually all US SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) systems in the US are connected to the Internet and hackable (meanwhile, the Chinese have figured how to hack into systems not connected to the Internet, but drawing electric power from the open grid).
+ Synchronous failures get worse when they jump system boundaries and created frayed less resilient networks.
+ He write of the thermodynamics of empire and the declining return on investment from energy discovery and exploitation.
+ He writes of migration getting much much worse in the future, which confirms my own view that border control is not the answer, stabilization & reconstruction of the source countries is the longer-term sustainable answer.
+ He credits George Soros with having the first intuitive understanding of the asymmetries of wealth in relation to destabilization of the world.
+ He observes that we have transformed and degrades half the Earth’s land surface, and is particularly concerned with the washing away of entire nations of topsoil (compounded by agriculture that does not do deep-root farming).
+ As the book winds to a conclusion, the author discusses massive denial and the loss of resilience that gets worse each day.
+ “Non-extremists have a formidable ‘collective action problem.’”
+ Need alternative values (I am reminded that the literature points out just two sustainable approaches to agriculture and community: the Amish and the Cuban). He notes that fundamentalists are especially ill-equipped by their myopia to be adaptive or resilient.
+ He covers the polarization between rich and poor. While other books listed below are more trenchant, the author has done a superb job of integrating historical, economic, social, and cultural works. This is a very fine book.
+ He adds a useful snippet on Cultural Intelligence, distinguishing between utilitarian values (likes and dislikes), moral values (fairness and justice), and existential values (significance and meaning).
+ Violence is discusses as stemming from motivation, opportunity, and framing–all of which can be found in the eight stages of genocide as defined by Dr. Greg Stanton of Genocide Watch.
+ He ends the book with praise of the open source model (search from my Gnomedex 2007 keytone, “Open Everything”) and concludes that the Internet is not living up to its potential as a platform for large-scale problem solving. I agree, and I condemn Google for choosing to become an illicit vacuum cleaner of other people’s information, rather than an open source platform for allowing every person to be a collector, processor, analyst, producer, and consumer of public intelligence (search for my book review of “Google 2.o: The Calculating Predator.” IBM ando the Google partners are literally BLIND and refusing to assimilate documented early warnings on how Google is preparing to scorch banking, communications, data storage, entertainment, and publishing, all without respect for privacy or copyright, and without regulatory oversight.
I list below eight books I recommend for reading as an expansion of this elegant synthesis. At Earth Intelligence Network you can find a table of 1000+ books I have reviewed, sortable by threat, policy, or challenger.
A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility–Report of the Secretary-General’s High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change
The Unconquerable World: Power, Nonviolence, and the Will of the People
A Power Governments Cannot Suppress
The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political–Citizen’s Action Handbook for Fighting Terrorism, Genocide, Disease, Toxic Bombs, & Corruption
Group Genius: The Creative Power of Collaboration
Five Minds for the Future
The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It
The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Eradicating Poverty Through Profits (Wharton School Publishing Paperbacks)Eye opening read. (2007-11-11)
without repeating points well-made by the other reviewers here, this book was an eye opener for me, and laid out clearly many things that have been concerning me for some time, but which I have mostly seen only intuitively; Homer-Dixon quantifies and qualifies many of these concerns.
My main problem with this book, and the reason I don’t give it five stars, is that Homer-Dixon’s grasp of history is Eurocentric and fairly shallow, so using the Roman empire as his only major comparison point is not presenting the historical picture at all well; he should have drawn on Persian history, especially the Sassanid empire, India and China, as a wider context would have shown that the Romans were at least as much borrowers as innovators, and when they ran out of ideas to borrow it harmed their solution-finding ability immensely.
The “Elephant in the room” that Homer-Dixon and others ignore (and he never squarely addresses it in this book) is that our biosphere probably cannot support the current number of humans indefinitely, let alone the expected population growth to come, even if the effects of looming resource shortages and global warming are ignored. In the event of a major breakdown of global networks and fragmenting of societies as they look out for themselves first and last, starvation on an enormous scale looms. This is a problem that also needs to be addressed, but perhaps has no socially acceptable solution.
Despite these minor reservations, I would recommend this book as a starting point that pulls together ideas from many disciplines, leading into deeper research from specialists in the fields Homer-Dixon touches on.Eloquent and timely (2007-09-04)
In this pathbreaking work Thomas Homer-Dixon illustrates the complex and tenuous relations between the human ecology and the natural systems upon which society, markets, and structures of governance are based. He warns that human populations, and their high rates of resource consumption, are rapidly outstripping the regenerative capacity of the planet. A principal contribution of the work lies in his argument that energy flows play a central role in the maintainance of economic and socio-political stability. Homer-Dixon’s exploration of the role of energy in the collapse of previous political institutions is rather novel and deserves serious consideration.
Moreover, Homer-Dixon has a rare talent for weaving advances in the natural sciences into the policy literature and communicating advanced concepts to the reader with clarity and precision. His discussions of complexity, emergent properties, and panarchy are particularly illuminating. A wonderful read.
Reflecting in the fog (2007-08-24)
The key question in this book is raised in the very middle: “Why don’t we face reality?” A major reason is that we are groping in a fog to learn what that reality is. Homer-Dixon likens our society to a driver careering along a country road in a dense fog. We can barely see what’s ahead, but we’re somehow confident that no mishap will befall us. We’ve gotten this far safely. As we drive, we’re guided by the mantra of “endless economic growth”. We have some idea where we’ve been, but remain uncertain about what lies ahead. Worse, we don’t seem to care. Ignoring the warning signs indicating that all might not be well we continue along our course. In this excellent study of how our society is progressing and where it’s likely going, the author clearly outlines the various options before us and what actions we can take to prevent serious disruptions.
The book is a call for preparation. Resilience is what our outlook and our policies should undertake to prevent disasters that we cannot handle. Having observed and reflected on these issues for several years, Homer-Dixon concludes that major difficulties lie ahead. We cannot avoid them - they’re already here or loom in the near future. He lists some of the obvious ones: terrorism is now a part of life, climate change beyond our experience is already with us, and economic and social disruption causes have already been pinpointed. His model used as the basis of assessment is the Roman Empire. He cites three examples of what the Empire accomplished, the Colosseum, the road and aqueduct networks and the Temple of Jupiter at Baalbek, Lebanon. All these enterprises required immense amounts of energy, yet a society without engineering schools achieved them all successfully. It worked only so long as the energy was available and applied efficiently. Our schools taught us that the Romans built their imperium on slavery, but Homer-Dixon shows that concept to be false. Oxen pulled the 256 carts of material required by the Colosseum and free peasant farmers supplied the basic energy needs. The Empire collapsed only when the energy required failed. We need to understand what can be learned from that Empire offer, and Homer-Dixon demonstrates how pertinent the lessons are today.
The author’s formula for assessment is EROI - Energy Return On Investment. We’ve been profligate in energy use, and it’s future availability is a major concern of the his. “Peak oil” has been the topic of so many books and articles, it should be old news. The author notes how the petroleum industry and those dependent on it keep up a continuous barrage of denial propaganda to discourage us from believing that evident fact. The “globalised” economy was supposed to reduce the distinction between rich and poor. Not only is it having the opposite effect, but it’s increasing the consumption of energy in the process. While a number of recent books stress the threats posed by environmental change, Homer-Dixon sees that as but one element in a far larger picture. He deals with a full range of pressures building up to threaten society. He likens them to tectonic stresses likely to snap unexpectedly at any time.
Unlike some books making forecasts or offering timetables of potential catastrophe, Homer-Dixon’s more circumspect. He’s more concerned with demonstrating that the kinds of “growth” we’ve experienced cannot endure. What and when surprise setbacks occur is of less importance to him than how we adjust to them. He’s not addressing a small coterie of “movers and shakers” with this work His prose style is just short of that of a story-telling narrative. He means for all of us, taxpayers, policy-makers and even academics and scientists, to participate in the development and preparation of new sets of options for survival. We will all be effected by the unfolding events. While this may seem that the author’s “Down” is inevitable and final, he prefixed it with “Upside” for a reason. His opening depicts the destruction of a city - San Francisco in the 1906 earthquake and fire. The city didn’t collapse and die, but recovery meant a new approach to disaster planning. We must follow that example, or our collapse will be more severe. It will be global and possibly all-consuming. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]Required Reading for all Who Care About the Planet (2007-07-05)
This brilliant, courageous, inspiring, multidisciplinary book unflinchingly examines the ominous, ever increasing tectonic pressures–population imbalances, energy shortages, environmental damage, global warming, and the widening gaps between rich and poor–that threaten to disrupt, if not topple, civilization.
Historical, ecological, political, economic, scientific, sociological and psychological threads are woven together in a fascinating, extremely readable analysis of the mess we are in, how we got here, what we can expect in the future, and what we can do about it.
Homer-Dixon does not provide magic bullet solutions to our problems because, in fact, none exists. He does, however, suggest four important actions, including boosting the overall resilience of our civilization, especially critical systems like energy and food distribution. Most importantly, he stresses the cultivation of the prospective mind, which includes an openness to radically new ways of thinking about our world and about how we should live our lives.
The author states that “when a social earthquake erupts–when the established order starts to crack and crumble–much depends on what happens in the period immediately following the initial shock.” A mega-crisis has the potential to jolt people awake from their social conditioning, and can bring out the very worst or the very best in people. Homer-Dixon tells us to prepare for that moment, so the forces of reason, tolerance and compassion will prevail.
This book is not for those wanting to pretend that band-aide solutions from corporate-owned politicians will save us. This book is a zen-like slap in the face designed to zap denial, and awaken prospective, creative intelligence, so that bold new solutions to our planetary problems can emerge.
If I could, I would make The Upside of Down required reading for everyone on the planet. When it comes to defining the global crisis, it is by far the best of the following related books which I’ve recently read:
James Howard Kunstler, The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil,
Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-
First Century (2006)
Stephen Leeb, The Coming Economic Collapse (2006)
Chalmers Johnson, Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic (2006)
Sir Martin Rees, Our Final Hour: A Scientist’s Warning (2003)
David Korten, The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community (2006)
Bill McKibben, Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable
Future(2007)
Raine Eisler, The Real Wealth of Nations: Creating a Caring Economics
(2007)
Jerry Mander & John Cavanagh, Alternatives to Economic Globalization
(2004)
Paul Hawken, Blessed Unrest: How the Largest Movement in the World Came
into Being and Why No One Saw it Coming (2007)
Lester Brown, Plan B2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a
Civilization in Trouble(2006)
Paul & Anne Ehrlich, One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption and the
Human Future(2004)
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